Trade and Supply Chains

The globalized world of the last three decades is fissuring: the international economic order and trading system is under growing pressure as major powers compete for industrial leadership, particularly in technology and the industrial clean energy sectors. Governments are subsidizing domestic industries while putting up trade barriers to promote onshoring and near shoring of supply chains and to decouple and insulate their economies. Russia’s war in Ukraine has already transformed what was a global oil market into a divided oil market. The overall result of these forces is an increasingly fragmented and contested global trading system, especially for technology, minerals, and energy transition technologies. Will new trade barriers lead to retaliation that impact economic growth and further disrupt energy flows?