Leadership Circles

The 13th annual Africa Energy and Economic Forum convenes at a time of increased global geopolitical competition and growing recognition of multiple energy transition pathways. With its abundant natural resources, significant infrastructure gaps and robust domestic and international energy demand, Africa presents numerous investment opportunities across the energy sector—from hydrocarbons and critical minerals to both conventional and renewable power generation, as well as transmission and distribution. Emerging technologies such as CCUS, hydrogen, AI and nuclear power are also garnering increasing attention. Throughout 2024, African countries that implemented important domestic reforms and restructured external alliances saw improved growth prospects in their energy sectors and economies. However, looking ahead to 2025 and beyond, major challenges persist as African countries work to establish institutional structures, regulatory frameworks and fiscal policies while recalibrating international partnerships to attract investment. These challenges include heightened global market volatility, inbound capital flows that remain highly sensitive to policy uncertainty, and chronic economic vulnerabilities. In the Forum, we will discuss how African companies and governments can overcome these obstacles and leverage their strengths to unlock transformative investments across the continent’s energy value chains.

Questions that will be discussed during the Forum will include the following: How have African countries facilitated new investment and leveraged supportive industries to increase natural resource production, address energy access deficits and advance decarbonization initiatives? How can regional integration enhance investment opportunities and competitive positioning and respond to realignments in the global supply chain? What policies and partnerships will support entrepreneurship in Africa and boost the continent’s capacity to support technology transfer and absorb investment capital for energy projects?

Asia Pacific Energy Leadership in a Complex World: Opportunities through partnership

Significant shifts in policy, technology, and geopolitics are elevating the complexity of the global energy market. New governments, the transformative impact of artificial intelligence, and ongoing conflicts worldwide are just a few of the intricate factors that are shaping how policymakers and companies formulate strategies to achieve the balance of energy security, accessibility, and the transition to more sustainable sources.

The evolving global landscape presents Asia Pacific with an opportunity to realize its leadership potential in the energy transition. The region, which accounts for half of the global population and carbon emissions, will continue to be the world’s biggest energy demand center. While more mature markets, such as Japan, South Korea and now China, are expected to experience an economic growth deceleration, developments in the emerging markets are projected to raise regional energy demand to 48% of the global share by 2050. The region’s approach to addressing energy demand growth while advancing through the energy transition will play a pivotal role in achieving global climate goals. How can Asian countries and companies demonstrate leadership by developing and implementing energy solutions that are uniquely suited to the region or applicable to other markets elsewhere? How can market participants in Asia collaborate to address the challenges associated with energy security and affordability? In which ways can partnership facilitate the resolution of the challenges and enhance technology adoption?Significant shifts in policy, technology, and geopolitics are elevating the complexity of the global energy market. New governments, the transformative impact of artificial intelligence, and ongoing conflicts worldwide are just a few of the intricate factors that are shaping how policymakers and companies formulate strategies to achieve the balance of energy security, accessibility, and the transition to more sustainable sources.

Capturing Latin America’s Place in Global Supply Chains

Tensions in global trade are driving a diversification of supply chains, creating opportunities in Latin America for near-shoring to bring trade and manufacturing closer to consumer markets. Energy transition has also made diversification a national security priority for critical metals and minerals. How can Latin America expand from an exporter of raw materials to a base for processing and manufacturing? What are its energy strengths to attract foreign investment? What is the potential to produce new low-carbon fuels? Can Latin America’s hydro and renewable base for power make it a hub for data centers and high tech? What policy changes are critical to build investor confidence? What can foreign governments and investors do to compete for market share?

Adapting to Change: Enhancing competitiveness in clean energy supply chains amid geopolitical challenges

This Leadership Circle invites industry leaders to engage in a comprehensive discussion focused on the evolving landscape of clean energy supply chains. As nations and regions such as the United States, India, MENA or the European Union endeavor to establish robust clean energy manufacturing capabilities—encompassing solar photovoltaic systems, onshore and offshore wind, batteries, electric vehicles and electrolyzers—they face significant obstacles. The complexities involved in developing these manufacturing processes are not only costly but also time-consuming, thereby escalating the overall expenses associated with the energy transition.

Concurrently, China's considerable overcapacity in clean energy production presents a complex challenge, as countries impose tariffs on Chinese supplies while China strategically shifts its focus toward non-US and non-EU markets. This evolving dynamic necessitates that companies adeptly navigate the supply chain disruptions resulting from the policy and geopolitical implications that will prevail in 2025 and years ahead.

This Leadership Circle will examine how companies are responding to these multifaceted challenges and the strategies they are employing to adapt and thrive. Participants will be encouraged to consider critical questions essential for maintaining competitiveness in this transformed landscape: What is the cost of procurement, and how can or should companies procure the necessary resources? What technologies are currently available to enhance operational efficiency? What risks do future assets potentially face in this shifting environment? What are the implications of new carbon-related policy (e.g., CBAM) for cleantech supply chains?

This important dialogue aims to chart a path forward for clean energy manufacturing and its implications for global energy markets, fostering collaboration and innovation among industry leaders.

The rise of non-OPEC+ crude production and impact on global trade flows: US, Canadian and Latin American crude production will continue expanding in 2025. As existing and new crude grades from the region flow into the global market, established trade flows will be impacted. How will markets adjust and what will be the impact on sweet/sour crude spreads as OPEC+ continue their production constraints into 2025?

Brave new refinery world: As new refineries in Africa and the Middle East come online, how will refined product flows shift in 2025? How will the differing outlooks for transportation fuels and petrochemical feedstock reshape refining and the global refined product markets?

Alternative fuels make their mark: Renewable diesel, biofuels and sustainable aviation fuel supplies are on the rise. LNG is establishing itself as a replacement fuel in land and marine transport. What is needed for new price benchmarks in fuels and feedstocks to establish themselves?

Financial Forum North America: Will the US Policy Pivot Mean Oil and Gas Dominate Deal Flow in 2025?

A sharp turn in the US political landscape has shifted the policy momentum behind energy sector deal flow from cleantech back to traditional fossil fuels, even as longer-term drivers continue to provide steady tailwinds for funding to renewables and other low-carbon alternatives.

How will this play out in the coming AI and data center–driven demand surge? A defining energy investment theme of 2024 was a decided pivot to reliability—particularly natural gas—as intermittent power sources assume a larger share of the grid.

Looking forward into 2025, we expect that trend to continue, but not at the expense of cleantech. The coming surge of power demand from AI and data centers is fueling more demand for all power generation sources, and we are seeing new types of energy deals driven by non-traditional energy market players seeking to bypass ossified regulatory structures in the interest of speed and access. We are also seeing new openings for mature technologies whose high costs have long precluded funding inflows, like nuclear and fossil fuels with CCUS, but are seeing renewed momentum in an environment where demand growth relegates consumers to a price-taker role.

Keeping Pace with Sustainability for CFOs: Managing risk, uncovering opportunities and reporting with confidence

The role of the CFO is increasingly integral to the intersect of business strategy and sustainability performance, from managing business risks to financing business opportunities and responding to increasing regulatory reporting requirements. Join the CFO Forum to examine the challenges and opportunities that CFOs are facing, and the evolution of the CFO role in connecting financial strategy to sustainability strategy, including assessing sustainability risks in financial terms, from company assets to operations and supply chains; incorporating sustainability-driven innovation, from expenses to revenue streams; and responding to regulatory and stakeholder demands for transparency on sustainability performance.

Key discussion questions include how has the CFO's role evolved to incorporate sustainability and climate risk into financial decision-making and long-term strategy? What are the primary challenges facing CFOs in meeting both national and regional reporting requirements, while planning for emerging global standards? What questions are investors raising? Is there a need to educate shareowners on the differences between short- and long-term risks? And how does the CFO office perceive climate and sustainability as opportunities for investment and revenue generation rather than merely expenses?

Squaring the Energy Transition Circle: What does a slowing energy transition mean for downstream?

The acceleration of the energy transition led downstream players to develop strategies and business plans for a lower carbon future. However, there are signs that the energy transition is slowing as consumers push back on higher-cost, low-carbon alternatives to fossil fuels, and some governments temper their ambitions. In mature markets, downstream companies are trying to balance shareholder pressure to reduce emissions (and keep returns high) with increasing regulatory uncertainty, the high costs and low returns of decarbonization projects, and cost-conscious consumers. In emerging markets, oil demand is increasing, yet financing downstream projects is becoming increasingly difficult as traditional sources of capital back away from fossil fuel projects. In this complicated, contradictory environment, what is a viable business plan for the next investment cycle? Have views on peak oil demand changed? Is it wise to set net-zero targets? What are the investment priorities for the next planning cycle?

Outlooks for gas and LNG vary widely, depending on region and environmental pressures. What needs to be done to realize the full benefits of this lower-carbon fuel? This Leadership Circle Summit will focus specifically on natural gas and LNG, looking at market and commercial considerations, their interaction with policy and growing government interventions and geopolitical competition. How much can US LNG grow under the new administration? How can the industry negotiate the issues of permitting, legal challenges and potentially sanctions? Are we still living through a ”Golden Age of Gas”? What are the latest prospects and outlooks for gas and LNG demand in different regions? How much appetite is there for more US LNG? How does the large increase in LNG capacity get absorbed into the market? And how are companies innovating and shifting commercial strategies to address increased volatility and long-term uncertainty around the pace of the energy transition?

Gas has a clear role to play in the Energy Transition although its positioning either as an alternative or a partner to wider electrification is complex varying by region, application, timeframe and security of supply considerations. This Leadership Circle Forum will discuss and explore the options for gas—both natural gas and low-carbon gas—including the role that US LNG plays within the global market. We will discuss both policy aspects and relevant technology developments. If the energy transition is slowing or stalling, what are the implications for gas? Does natural gas become ”Plan B” if there is a reset on ambitions for low-carbon energy? How realistically can natural gas infrastructure transition to a low-carbon system? How are companies balancing the focus on supporting the energy needs of today while preparing for deep decarbonization required in the future? What needs to be done to achieve and demonstrate near-zero methane emissions from natural gas?

Shaping the Upstream Revival

Upstream continues to react to present and anticipated market conditions and accelerate its transformation to deliver hydrocarbon supply for the foreseeable future, with much lower carbon and higher margins. There are key issues to solve around accomplishing that such as the double-edged sword of speed; conversion of discovered undeveloped reserves; and balancing investor desires with long-term company health. Join us for a lively discussion on these issues. 

Guiding Corporate Strategies and Leadership in Clean Energy Procurement

Corporations across various sectors, from retail to IT and manufacturing, are actively engaging in energy procurement, particularly focusing on clean, renewable electricity. This trend spans the globe, including the United States, Europe, and emerging markets like China, India and Brazil. However, volatile energy costs, supply chain issues, consumer demand for affordability, regulatory reforms and shareholder expectations complicate these efforts. Additionally, corporations navigate diverse market frameworks, which adds complexity to their decarbonization strategies.

The Consumer Energy Power Buyers Forum will explore critical questions companies face in emission reduction: How does the current global landscape impact corporate clean energy procurement? In what ways can corporations lead the energy transition? How can energy suppliers and governments collaborate with corporations to forge strong partnerships?

Riding the Wave: Transforming announcements into electrons

The nuclear sector stands at a critical juncture. COP29 has underscored the vital role of nuclear energy in decarbonizing power systems. Concurrently, the growing demand for clean energy is fostering new collaborations with the technology sector, significantly amplifying the nuclear market. Nevertheless, significant challenges persist, including the lack of final investment decisions and of new construction starts. This Forum will explore how the nuclear industry can adeptly navigate these obstacles and capitalize on emerging opportunities to provide sustainable energy solutions. How is the nuclear market evolving? What specific, actionable strategies can be implemented to address challenges related to financing, supply chain management, workforce development and project execution? How can nuclear energy adapt to the shifting energy landscape, and what potential implications might this have for future investments and collaborative partnerships?

Power demand is witnessing a significant increase in key markets, notably in the United States and Asia, with far-reaching impacts. The surge in demand is primarily fueled by economic expansion, electrification and the anticipated reliance on artificial intelligence and data centers. A major challenge lies in the development of new power infrastructure to accommodate this demand growth, including addressing grid-reliability issues associated with wind and solar energy, navigating increased weather-related risks and managing high interest rates. Utilities are grappling with these new challenges while still working to resolve previous issues, such as ensuring that grids are fit for purpose, adapting economic models and handling political risks.

• Demand beyond the hype. What will be the impact of data centers and artificial intelligence on power demand, capacity additions and corporate clean energy procurement?
• Adaptive infrastructure in a changing world. What effects will weather and climate change have on forecasting and preparing for market fundamentals in the context of an increasing share of renewables? How might emerging technologies disrupt power system operations? Could risks to grid stability necessitate substantial policy changes on market design?
• Rewriting the business playbook. What business strategies should be adopted to navigate market volatility, permitting and interconnection delays, and low returns on capital? How will new players, including oil/gas majors and technologies companies, reshape the power business? How will developments in renewable technology costs, rising infrastructure expenses and utility strategies affect affordability?
• Power and politics. How are geopolitical dynamics influencing the energy transition within the power sector? Conversely, how is the power sector shaping geopolitical landscapes and the evolving global order?

Electric vehicles: How far, how fast?

In 2024 the shift to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) stumbled outside of China. In Europe and the United States, unconvinced consumers have led to inventories building on dealer lots. The poor financial performance of several major automakers has contributed to job losses, pivots in strategies and vocal calls for a slower pace of change. With a swathe of new BEV products come to market, notably in more affordable segments, 2025 will be a defining year. What are the obstacles to mass market adoption of BEV adoption outside China and is progress being made to overcome them? Are there other feasible paths to a zero-emissions fleet in the timescale required? Can broader environmental commitments be met with more flexible fleet CO2 and ICE phase out targets? How might the sustainability message supporting BEVs be made more compelling, to both private buyers and fleet operators? What can the rest of the world do to compete with Chinese BEV offerings?

Critical Minerals: Building resilient and sustainable supply chains

As demand for critical minerals rises due to the global energy transition and semiconductor chips growth, companies and governments must build resilient supply chains amid increasing trade restrictions. The Critical Mineral Forum will explore strategies for navigating these challenges, focusing on low-carbon or alternative supply sources. How can government, industry and the financial community develop critical mineral corridors to enhance cooperation and secure the raw materials required? How can this be combined with an increased focus on circularity and low-carbon supply of critical minerals? What are short- and medium-term enablers to fast-tracking metal production both domestically and abroad? How is the market pricing regional and product specific differences?

As AI continues to transform industries, its soaring energy demands present both challenges and unprecedented opportunities for the energy sector. Join us for a dynamic forum where we’ll dive into the critical dialogue on how energy producers, distributors and consultants can lead the charge in addressing this. Can AI itself be used to solve some of the energy demand problem? What can energy producers, distributors and consumers do? What are the capabilities—human and machine—needed from the energy industry to address this? Can the transformative potential of quantum computing play a role in creating energy efficient AI? What kind of investment capital is needed? Where will it come from? What are the priorities for capital allocation?

Be a key player in shaping the future of energy consumption driven by AI. Don’t miss this exciting opportunity to connect, collaborate and share knowledge with your peers from the industry.

Competing on Carbon: Incorporating carbon into business decisions

Companies are under increasing pressure to compete on carbon. Yet, reporting is highly inconsistent and alignment on emission accounting is missing. In the absence of trusted metrics, market signals cannot form, and regulatory expansion is inevitable, increasing compliance cost, with the potential to impact trade and capital allocation. There is a need for action from industry to align on consistent carbon accounting and reporting frameworks. This private roundtable will propose what steps should be taken and demonstrated to governments and the world to accelerate market formation for the oil and gas trade.

Carbon markets have seen both progress and setbacks as tools for decarbonization—while an increasing share of global emissions is covered under some carbon pricing mechanism. This session will explore the challenges and opportunities of new carbon pricing paradigms assisting decision-makers in navigating this evolving landscape with greater confidence. Key highlights include:

• Evolution of Carbon Markets: Discuss the latest prevailing trends in both compliance and voluntary carbon markets – global, regional, national, and supranational.
• Opportunities & Challenges: Identify the key opportunities and challenges that companies face in leveraging carbon markets.
• Market Segmentation: Compare and contrast compliance and voluntary market segments to understand their unique dynamics.
• Drivers of Change

o Article 6 of the Paris Agreement: What should we expect from final adoption of Article 6 at COP29 in Baku? What changes? Will this prompt growth in international carbon trading?

o EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): What is the future of CBAM and related efforts. Will they drive growth in global carbon markets?

o Sectoral schemes, such as CORSIA (aviation) and the inclusion of maritime emissions (shipping)in existing cap-and-trade systems (EU, UK): Carbon markets are being globalized—how are stakeholders responding?

o Carbon removals’ rise: Carbon removal and capture are gaining greater attention and higher value than avoidance projects, such as more established Biochar projects, but also Direct Air Capture (DAC) and Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCs). What is driving this distinction, what are the latest trends—and opportunities?

o Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) developments: Stakeholder initiatives to reintroduce confidence into the VCM are active. Are they making a difference? Is there a need for government intervention or firmer regulation?

o Complex credit-based compliance systems: Some of the largest economics of the world are undertaking more complex and hybrid compliance frameworks, including the BRICs. Does this mean less opportunity for international trading, carbon fungibility and global investment? 

Measuring and Scaling Progress

As the industry is maturing from commitment to action on methane emissions, so too do the key concerns of the industry and its stakeholders. As, 54 companies, representing 45% of global production, have pledged to achieve near-zero upstream methane emissions by 2030 and Europe is announcing its methane regulations, more transparency on implementation and results is needed. This session will bring together stakeholders from governments, industries and NGOs to explore the following topics: Are methane emissions on the decline? How can performance be effectively demonstrated, and how do we address competing claims? What are the tools to establish a level playing field (finance, best practice sharing)? What strategies have proven successful?

Project developers have navigated real challenges in 2024 to develop first-of-a-kind projects for clean hydrogen. Simultaneously, solidified policy and regulatory frameworks have led to significant maturation in the hydrogen project pipeline, and over 20 million metric tons of production capacity (20% of incumbent hydrogen market volume) is in an advanced phase of development. Therefore, 2025 is shaping up to be a turning point in the global market: Will project investment, construction and commissioning accelerate, or will cost and regulatory challenges lead to further delays and cancellations? In this Leadership Circle, we will assess the current landscape for hydrogen (and derivatives) and discuss key next steps to accelerate growth as the market looks toward 2030.

Key questions will include what are the major cost centers for hydrogen projects today, and what technology or engineering solutions exist to address those challenges? What is missing from current policy and regulatory schemes that would accelerate growth in this new industry? How do you negotiate pricing mechanisms and contract terms with potential off-takers, and what is required to take a Final Investment Decision?

Is a New Approach to Oil and Gas Technology Development Needed?

S&P Global has long contended that oil and gas sector technology activities reflect (and in some cases portend) broader industry strategies. If that’s the case, then recent shifts in technology focus reinforce a return-to-upstream trend observed elsewhere. Yet, shifting industry priorities, a changing competitive landscape (e.g., industry consolidation), and the emergence of new technologies (e.g., digitalization and AI) suggest that past approaches to strategic technology sourcing may not fit future conditions.

This year’s Oil & Gas Innovation Leadership Circle Summit explores how industry players might best position themselves to effectively develop needed capabilities. What breakthrough upstream technologies are still needed (e.g., seismic acquisition, subsea), and what do recent experiences (e.g., 20K, ultra-long laterals) tell us about how best to pursue them, such as internal R&D, partnerships and JIPs, or project-led innovation? Can digitalization and AI help fill the gaps through the development of new technical capabilities, or will they largely be an efficiency play? What organizational models are proving most effective at sourcing as well as deploying new strategic technologies (and which is more important?) How can companies maintain nimbleness in the face of changing priorities and conditions?

Around the world, private sector and governments are increasingly focused on balancing economic growth, energy security, competitiveness and affordability with the demands of the energy transition. At the same time, it has become increasingly clear that the overarching international goal to limit the rise of global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, as enshrined in the Paris Agreement, is all but impossible. Against this backdrop, during CERAWeek 2025, the Climate and Sustainability Summit will discuss investments and regulatory guidelines. With major energy producers retreating from investments in the energy transition, and private investors, multi-lateral banks and governments not able to provide the investments required, where will trillions of dollars of investment in energy transition come from? Companies and investors face a growing, complex web of regulatory and reporting guidelines around climate risks. However, the global temperature target that theoretically guides these measures looks out of reach. How should sustainability and progress on the energy transition be measured going forward?